In the year 2023, the capital of India, New Delhi, witnessed a surge in energy-related carbon emissions, propelled by robust GDP growth and an unfavorable monsoon season. The International Energy Agency (IEA) disclosed an approximate increase of 190 million tonnes, while emphasizing that India’s per capita emissions still linger significantly below the global mean. On a global scale, energy-related carbon emissions escalated by 1.1%, reaching a staggering 37.4 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2023, marking a new pinnacle, according to the IEA’s report released on Friday.
China, experiencing the most substantial surge in emissions globally, recorded an increase of approximately 565 million tonnes in 2023. This growth mirrors its continued trend of emissions-intensive economic expansion post-pandemic, resulting in per capita emissions in China surpassing those of advanced economies by 15%. Despite this, China maintained its dominance in the realm of global clean energy additions.
For India, the formidable GDP growth contributed to a rise of around 190 million tonnes in emissions. Simultaneously, a feeble monsoon season heightened electricity demand and curtailed hydro production, accounting for approximately one-quarter of the overall emissions increase in 2023. It’s noteworthy that per capita emissions in India persist well below the global average, as highlighted by the IEA.
Throughout 2023, India grappled with persistent warm and dry conditions, coupled with a weak monsoon season, with August registering as the driest month in at least 45 years. The previous year, in 2022, global energy-related emissions ascended by 490 million tonnes, representing a 1.3% uptick. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stresses the collective need for a 43% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane by 2030 to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The IEA underscored that coal-derived emissions constituted over 65% of the increase in 2023. Notably, global hydropower capacity expanded by approximately 20 gigawatts (GW) during the same year. However, despite this surge, the global generation of hydropower witnessed a historic decline, primarily attributed to severe and prolonged droughts impacting major hydropower regions, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon—a periodic warming of central Pacific Ocean waters.
Had the hydropower plant fleet availability in 2023 remained consistent with 2022 levels, a supplementary 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity could have been generated globally. This, in turn, would have averted the emission of around 170 million tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuel-based power plants. Consequently, global electricity sector emissions would have seen a decline in 2023, rather than a modest rise, as per the IEA’s analysis.
The IEA also highlighted that between 2019 and 2023, total energy-related emissions observed an increase of about 900 million tonnes. However, the growing adoption of five pivotal clean energy technologies—solar PV, wind, nuclear, heat pumps, and electric cars—since 2019 played a crucial role in mitigating this growth. Without these technologies, emissions would have surged three times more than the actual observed increase.
“Thanks to the expanding integration of clean energy, emissions are undergoing a structural deceleration. Over the decade leading to 2023, global emissions experienced a marginal growth rate of slightly over 0.5% per annum, representing the slowest rate since the Great Depression,” noted the IEA in its comprehensive assessment.