Amidst the reverberations of recent events, Iran initiates a registration phase spanning five days, commencing Thursday, for prospective candidates vying for the upcoming presidential election on June 28, in the wake of the untimely demise of Ebrahim Raisi and seven others in a helicopter mishap earlier this month. This electoral undertaking unfolds against the backdrop of the aftermath of the May 19 tragedy, coupled with escalated tensions between Tehran and Washington, compounded by protests, notably in response to the demise of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which have cascaded across the nation.

While the venerable Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85, wields ultimate authority over all state affairs, the historical trajectory of Iranian presidents has witnessed oscillations between fostering greater engagement or precipitating heightened antagonism towards the Western world within the Islamic Republic of Iran. The designated timeframe shall witness individuals aged 40 to 75, possessing a minimum of a master’s degree, registering as potential contenders. However, all aspirants must garner approval from Iran’s 12-member Guardian Council, a body comprising clerics and jurists, subject ultimately to the oversight of Khamenei. Historically, this council has never extended candidacy to a female aspirant nor entertained proponents advocating for radical reform within the nation’s governance structure.

Ahmad Vahidi, Iran’s interior minister, inaugurated the registration phase. The Interior Ministry, entrusted with overseeing the country’s law enforcement apparatus, orchestrates Iranian elections devoid of substantial international scrutiny. Vahidi expressed assurance regarding the forthcoming elections, assuring the populace of a secure and healthy electoral environment characterized by robust competition and widespread participation.

Raisi, a protégé of Khamenei, clinched victory in Iran’s 2021 presidential election subsequent to the disqualification of all contenders perceived as posing a viable challenge. Notably, the preceding electoral turnout marked a nadir in Iran’s electoral history. Subsequent to the parliamentary elections, which witnessed an even more subdued participation rate amidst calls for a widespread boycott, it became apparent that public sentiment reflected disenchantment with both a hard-line cleric, who had faced U.S. sanctions in connection with his involvement in mass executions in 1988, and Iran’s Shiite theocracy, nearly four decades post the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The contenders and their prospects for acceptance remain shrouded in uncertainty. Mohammad Mokhber, the incumbent acting president, formerly operating behind the scenes as a bureaucrat, emerges as a potential frontrunner, given his documented engagements with Khamenei. Additionally, former hard-line President Mohammad Ahmadinejad and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami are touted as prospective contenders, albeit the feasibility of their candidacy remains dubious.

The registration window spanning five days shall conclude on Tuesday, with the Guardian Council anticipated to unveil the final roster of candidates within ten days thereafter. Subsequently, a truncated two-week campaign period precedes the scheduled late June election. Against the backdrop of Iran’s escalation of uranium enrichment to nearly weapons-grade levels and the imposition of impediments on international inspections, the incoming president will assume office amidst geopolitical turmoil. Iran’s military involvement in supporting Russia’s campaign in Ukraine, coupled with offensive maneuvers against Israel amid the Gaza conflict, underscores Tehran’s continued backing of proxy factions across the Middle East, exemplified by Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia.

Meanwhile, Iran’s economic landscape contends with protracted adversity precipitated by the precipitous depreciation of the rial currency. Nationwide demonstrations, most recently sparked by the demise of Amini following her arrest for alleged non-compliance with mandatory headscarf regulations, underscore simmering discontent. A U.N. investigative panel has attributed Amini’s demise to the Iranian government’s resort to physical coercion. Raisi’s demise marks only the second instance of an Iranian president succumbing to office-related fatalities, the first being the assassination of President Mohammad Ali Rajai in 1981 amidst the tumultuous aftermath of the Islamic Revolution.