Amidst escalating global temperatures, the year 2024 looms as one of the quintet warmest in history, as per findings by the ‘Climate Trends’ institution, evoking grave concern. The absence of pre-monsoon precipitation and electrical storms in April unveiled a disquieting reality: the southern extremity of the Indian subcontinent marked its fifth lowest rainfall since the annals of 1901.
Propelled by the formidable impact of the Super El Nino phenomenon, soaring temperatures have etched a relentless trajectory for ten consecutive months since June 2023, culminating in April’s unprecedented thermal apex. The specter of climate change now casts its shadow upon the democratic processes of India, the world’s largest bastion of democracy. Hence, a discourse has been unfurled encapsulated in the document titled “Will the burgeoning heat and climatic vicissitudes lend themselves to orchestrating summertime elections anew within the nation?”
In the current annum, a surfeit of 64 nations shall witness nearly half the global populace exercising their electoral franchise. Within India, the preeminent democratic colossus, notwithstanding the unprecedented mercury surge, upwards of 90 crore individuals stand poised to partake in the electoral saga.
Super El Nino, an omnipresent force, has already precipitated a 20% shortfall in pre-monsoon precipitation across the nation’s expanse. The amplification of El Nino’s influence, catalyzed by anthropogenic missteps, portends an era of intensifying climatic perturbations. The meteorological annals bore witness to 2016’s reign as the zenith of thermal anomalies owing to El Nino, yet this record was usurped in 2023 by the advent of the Super El Nino phenomenon.
As per pronouncements by the Indian Meteorological Department, the advent of anti-cyclones over the Indian landmass has dissipated the conducive conditions requisite for precipitation. Consequently, the maritime gusts emanating from Odisha and West Bengal have ebbed, concomitant with an augmentation in temperatures.
The delineation of coastal regions breaching the 37-degree Celsius threshold is deemed perilous. Such scorching temperatures have been documented along the coastal peripheries and across the national terrain, with the eastern seaboard bearing the brunt of climatic extremities.
In consonance with findings by the United States-based Climate Central institution, post-commencement of electoral proceedings in April, 36 out of 51 major urban agglomerations in India witnessed a sustained spell of temperatures surpassing 37 degrees Celsius over a tripartite duration. Approximately 18 urban centers logged temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for an analogous duration in April.
Testimonials from erstwhile election commissioners delineate the discourse on the feasibility of summer elections. OP Rawat, erstwhile Chief Election Commissioner, opined, “The extant electoral cycle spans from December 17, 2023, to June 16, 2024. Nevertheless, owing to impending assembly elections in certain states during November and December, the Lok Sabha elections have been deferred by two to three months. Moving forward, convening an All-Party Conference is incumbent. The scheduling of state elections should be postponed by two months, thereby facilitating the conduct of Parliamentary elections within the stipulated six-month timeframe.”
Prognosticating that the forthcoming general election in 2029 shall transpire between January 1 and June 30, Rawat advocated for the expediency of February and March for electoral exercises. Alternatively, he proposed legislative amendments empowering the Election Commission to advance state elections if need be.
Ashok Lavasa, retired election commissioner, emphasized, “The Election Commission wields the prerogative to convene elections at any juncture within a 180-day ambit. Arrangements must be made to ensure that voters braving the summer heat are afforded access to cool venues and potable water. However, the tenure of the incumbent government must remain inviolate. The timing of the electoral calendar should be attuned to the exigencies of the academic realm, particularly considering the conduction of examinations in February and March. Stringent measures ought to be adopted to mitigate the repercussions of summer-related calamities.”