In a groundbreaking revelation, the global mean temperature has breached the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for an entire year, as reported by the European climate agency on Thursday. It’s crucial to note that this doesn’t signify a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit outlined in the Paris Agreement, but rather points to sustained warming over an extended period.
Scientists from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) emphasized that the world recently encountered the warmest January on record. Remarkably, each month since June of the previous year has consecutively held the title for the warmest month ever recorded. This unprecedented warming is attributed to the combined influences of El Niño—a phase of abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean—and human-induced climate change.
According to C3S, the global mean temperature for the past 12 months (February 2023 to January 2024) reached unprecedented levels, surpassing the 1.52 degrees Celsius mark above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900. January 2024, with an average temperature of 13.14 degrees Celsius, was 0.12 degrees Celsius warmer than the previously recorded warmest January in 2020, as reported by the EU’s climate agency. Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S, remarked, “2024 commences with another record-breaking month—not only marking the warmest January on record but also experiencing a 12-month period exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period.”
Burgess stressed the imperative for swift reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as the sole means to prevent a further escalation of global temperatures. The year 2023 holds the record for the warmest on record, with the global temperature rise nearing the critical 1.5-degree Celsius threshold compared to pre-industrial levels. The World Meteorological Organization’s December announcement warned that 2024 could exacerbate the situation, given that “El Niño typically exerts the most significant impact on global temperature post its peak.”
In 2015, nations committed in Paris to curtail the average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Long-term data indicates that the Earth’s global surface temperature has ascended by approximately 1.15 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Scientists caution that adhering to business-as-usual scenarios would lead to a temperature rise of around 3 degrees Celsius by the century’s end.
To cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, countries collectively need to slash emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane by 43% by 2030. At the 28th UN climate conference on climate change in Dubai, nearly 200 nations concurred for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly, and equitable manner” to avert the direst consequences of climate change.
The upcoming UN climate conference in Baku’s capital Azerbaijan will center on climate finance. Countries will need to establish a new post-2025 target for raising funds to assist developing nations in reducing emissions and managing the impacts of climate change. This task is arduous as wealthy nations have repeatedly fallen short of their 2009 commitment to raise USD 100 billion annually by 2020 to support developing countries.