In the aftermath of the public revelation of the Oscar nominations, certain shifts in momentum demand our consideration as we navigate the landscape of predicting the 2024 Oscar outcomes. Simultaneously, enigmatic elements linger, adding an air of mystery as the Oscar night draws near. Nonetheless, some aspects have seemed predestined for quite some time, specifically the anticipation of yet another remarkably splendid night for Oppenheimer.

Nominated in an impressive 13 categories, Oppenheimer faces formidable competition, particularly in the realms of adapted screenplay and the masterful execution of editing and original score. The categories of outstanding animated film, costume, and production design also carry a weight of suspense, forcing voters to choose between the starkly divergent universes of Poor Things and Barbie. After meticulous examination, we unveil the names of the frontrunners in the four most acclaimed categories: best picture, best director, best actress, and best actor.

BEST PICTURE

Anatomy of a Descent

Barbie

The Continuations

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Previous Lives

Poor Things

The Sphere of Interest

PREDICTED VICTOR: Oppenheimer

Over a decade has passed since a film claimed the top prize at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and British Academy—the last being Argo in 2013, following the precedent set by Slumdog Millionaire in 2008. Such unequivocal dominance is a rarity, but when it occurs, the trajectory of this category becomes glaringly predictable. Oppenheimer, with an unbeatable performance throughout the season, stands poised to join this exclusive class, where no competitor can wrestle away its momentum.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jonathan Glazer, The Sphere of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Descent

PREDICTED VICTOR: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Instances where a film secures the best picture accolade without claiming the best director honor have been infrequent, but this time around, the likelihood appears slim. Christopher Nolan, a stalwart in mainstream filmmaking for nearly two decades, emerged as one of Hollywood’s luminaries even before Oppenheimer achieved global acclaim. Oppenheimer was intrinsically tied to his name, and the success of one was inseparable from the other.

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Nyad

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Descent

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

PREDICTED VICTOR: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

While Emma Stone remains a formidable contender, Lily Gladstone’s triumphant performance at the SAG Awards on January 24 has tilted the odds in favor of Killers of the Flower Moon. Both actresses delivered outstanding performances—Stone’s audacious portrayal in Poor Things serves as the film’s focal point, while Gladstone’s heart-wrenching depiction of a grieving woman caught in a harrowing and lethal conspiracy in Killers serves as the film’s emotional core. The category boasts overall strength with diverse and exceptional performances, but Gladstone and Stone have consistently garnered acclaim. Notably, Gladstone has been making history all season, becoming the first Indigenous performer to secure a SAG Award for Best Actress—an Oscar win on March 10 would mark the first for a Native American actor.

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Continuations

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

PREDICTED VICTOR: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Recent years have witnessed significant intrigue in this category, from Anthony Hopkins’ unexpected triumph over the late Chadwick Boseman to Brendan Fraser narrowly surpassing Austin Butler in the previous year’s suspenseful showdown. While Paul Giamatti outpaced Cillian Murphy at the Critics Choice and continues to ride a wave of acclaim and career appreciation following his captivating performance in The Continuations, Oppenheimer’s star secured victories at both SAG and BAFTA. These industry accolades, shared with the Academy, position Oppenheimer for a triumphant showing at the Oscars, reminiscent of Everything Everywhere All at Once’s success the previous year.