The nexus between India and Maldives is poised to encounter a plethora of upheavals. Furthermore, Muizzu, the reigning luminary of Maldives, is anticipated to fortify connections with China, unhampered by legislative impediments. This juncture is poised to present formidable challenges for India, Harsh V Pant, Vice-President for Studies at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, conveyed to ETV Bharat.
This transpires in the aftermath of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s faction clinching a resounding triumph in the elections last Sunday. Sources reveal that the People’s National Congress (PNC) secured 70 out of 93 seats, wresting complete sway over Parliament. Conversely, the principal opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), helmed by erstwhile President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, perceived as pro-India, managed merely 15 seats this time, in contrast to the 65 in the prior Parliament.
The recent electoral ascendancy of the Pro-China faction in Maldives is liable to wield substantial repercussions on the alliance between India and Maldives, as per an authority on the matter, Harsh V Pant. He cautions of impending turbulence, given that President Muizzu is expected to interpret this victory as a mandate for his policies, aimed squarely at India. Unhindered by legislative shackles, he is set to steer the nation closer to China, a development that could engender a challenging milieu for both India and Maldives.
“Hence, it is imperative for President Muizzu to grasp the significance of India-Maldives relations and adeptly navigate them. A failure to do so might yield consequential outcomes for Maldives, casting a pall over the bilateral ties between India and Maldives,” Pant elaborated.
The future course of India-Maldives relations in the extant scenario hinges on President Muizzu’s decisions. His prior comportment hints at a continued alignment of Maldives with China, a trajectory that could engender notable tumult in the bilateral dynamic. Muizzu’s comprehension of the import of India-Maldives relations and their judicious management is paramount. An anti-India stance or rhetoric could prove costly, not only in the realm of bilateral ties but also for Maldives, as placing all its eggs in one basket, particularly the Chinese one, is fraught with peril, the expert explicated.
With China reaping the rewards, it behooves Muizzu to acknowledge the import of India-Maldives relations and adopt measures commensurate with his foreign policy calculus. Ultimately, the onus lies with Muizzu, who must determine the trajectory of this alliance’s future, Pant remarked.
The recent Maldivian election unfolds against the backdrop of an already strained rapport between Maldives and India. Since assuming office, President Muizzu’s anti-India crusade during the preceding year’s presidential election has sparked grave misgivings in India. Muizzu has even compelled India to withdraw its military personnel stationed across three aviation platforms in the Maldives by this May. Compounding this, Muizzu diverged from established policy, journeying to China in January this year for meetings with top Chinese dignitaries, including President Xi Jinping. This sojourn culminated in the inking of a defence cooperation agreement and multiple other infrastructural initiatives.
The diplomatic skirmish between the two nations took a contentious turn following disparaging remarks made against India and PM Modi by certain Maldivian politicians subsequent to his January 2024 visit to Lakshadweep. PM Modi’s visit was construed as an endeavor to boost tourism in the archipelago at Maldives’ expense.
It warrants attention that Maldives holds a pivotal position as India’s maritime neighbor in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), occupying a special niche in India’s initiatives such as SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and India’s Neighbourhood First Policy.
The repercussions of the strained India-Maldives relations transcend the diplomatic realm, extending to the domain of tourism diplomacy. Maldives, once a favored destination for Indian tourists, has witnessed a marked dip in Indian arrivals, with India now ranking sixth among the top 10 markets for Maldives tourism. This contrasts sharply with China, emerging as the foremost market for Maldives tourism. This shift in tourism metrics underscores the imperative for both nations to labor towards enhancing their bilateral relations. It is pivotal for Maldives to appreciate the import of India-Maldives ties and calibrate its foreign policy approach to avert adverse impacts on the bilateral dynamic. A balanced approach would redound to the benefit of both nations, securing the prosperity of Maldives’ tourism sector.
The Maldives’ Ministry of Tourism recently disseminated its monthly report on tourist influx. As per the report, a tally of 56,208 Indian tourists sojourned in Maldives between January and March 2023. This figure dwindled to 34,847 in January-March 2024. Conversely, the influx of Chinese tourists surged from 17,691 in January-March 2023 to 67,399 in January-March 2024.
Meanwhile, extending felicitations to Maldives on its triumph, China conveyed its intent to bolster ties with Maldives. “China stands prepared to collaborate with Maldives to sustain our enduring camaraderie, broaden exchanges, and foster cooperation across diverse spheres,” articulated Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.
“Beijing aspires to deepen the China-Maldives comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and hasten the establishment of a community with a shared future for China and Maldives, for the mutual benefit of both peoples,” Wenbin expounded during a routine press briefing. “We extend our congratulations to Maldives for the successful conduct of its parliamentary election and wholeheartedly respect the choice made by the Maldivian populace,” Wang remarked.