The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on Monday that India is poised to experience an elevated monsoon season in 2024, with rainfall projected at 106% of the historical average.

“The monsoon season from June to September 2024 across the nation is anticipated to exceed the typical range, being more than 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA),” IMD noted in a release. “Quantitatively, seasonal precipitation throughout India is expected to reach 106% of the LPA, with a model uncertainty of ±5%. The LPA for rainfall across the nation for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm.”

Moderate El Niño conditions persist across the equatorial Pacific, according to current climate analyses. Projections from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest a likely shift to neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the early monsoon, transitioning to La Niña in the latter part of the season.

As of now, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail, with projections pointing towards positive IOD conditions emerging later in the southwest monsoon season.

“Between January and March 2024, Northern Hemisphere snow cover was below average,” the IMD remarked. “Historically, there is an inverse correlation between Northern Hemisphere winter and spring snow cover and the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The IMD will release an updated forecast for monsoon season precipitation in the last week of May 2024.”