New Delhi: In the aftermath of the grueling elections, the revelation of the highly anticipated Lok Sabha poll results is slated for June 4, Tuesday. Amidst the fervor regarding who shall helm the forthcoming administration, an imperative query emerges concerning India’s foreign policy and the impending challenges in an increasingly convoluted global geopolitical environment.
Should the incumbent party secure another term, an evolved policy and approach are anticipated, alongside a surge of pending policy resolutions awaiting action. A demanding diplomatic itinerary would commence with PM Modi’s initial overseas journey to Bangladesh, followed by participation in the Russia-hosted BRICS foreign ministers’ conclave, the G7 summit in Italy, the BRICS ministers’ rendezvous in Russia, and the SCO summit in Kazakhstan.
A foreign policy savant indicated a strong likelihood of PM Modi’s triumphant return with a commanding victory and majority. “In that scenario, his sway and stature within India will burgeon significantly on the global stage. Over the past decade, India’s influence has magnified, and it is poised to ascend further. India’s emphasis on augmenting its economic prowess is paramount, having ascended from the world’s 10th to the 5th largest economy and projected to become the third largest. An expanding economy amplifies India’s capability to assume a more formidable role on the international platform,” articulated India’s former ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar to ETV Bharat.
He continued, “India will persist in prioritizing its relations with the US, which remains the most consequential alliance, spanning defense, economy, and technology sectors, irrespective of the outcomes of the US presidential elections in November.”
Sajjanhar elaborated, “India is expected to sustain normative relations with Russia. The strategic autonomy exercised by India in maintaining its rapport with Russia, despite intense opposition from the West, has enhanced India’s significance to Moscow. As reliance on China burgeons, Moscow will likely seek to preserve robust and dynamic ties with India in economic, trade, and defense realms.”
“India will persist in its focus on Europe and West Asia. Additionally, India is anticipated to host the Quad Summit preceding the US elections this year or early next year. President Biden’s impending visit to New Delhi could underscore India’s support for his administration,” remarked the ex-diplomat.
It is crucial to acknowledge that the transformations India is experiencing are heavily influenced by the electoral activities worldwide in 2024, encompassing the European Union and the US. Consequently, most multilateral platforms, where these key players and India hold substantial sway, will be subject to domestic political dynamics and challenges.
Furthermore, Russia, a steadfast ally of India, recently concluded its elections, and President Putin, upon his reelection, embarked on his initial state visit to China last week. Both Russia and China, as principal permanent members of the UN Security Council, are unlikely to align their interests and strategies with the US-led bloc in the foreseeable future.
Sajjanhar further highlighted that while the most promising prospects lie in relations with the US, the most formidable challenge resides in relations with China. He asserted, “China has consistently disregarded India’s concerns, and with PM Modi’s re-election, it will undoubtedly send a signal to Beijing that normal relations necessitate peace and tranquility at the border. The onus is now on China.”
Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy aspirations encompass elevating India’s global stature, fostering economic growth through international alliances, strengthening regional cooperation, and safeguarding national security. He has also underscored India’s role as a responsible global entity and sought to fortify ties with pivotal strategic partners while maintaining a balanced stance towards major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia.
Reforming multilateral institutions, particularly the UN and attaining permanent membership, remains a long-standing foreign policy objective for PM Modi. In the current geopolitical climate, the new administration will face significant foreign policy challenges ahead.
