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The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecasted that the southwest monsoon is progressing as anticipated and is expected to commence over the Kerala coast within the next five days. Previously, the IMD had projected May 31 as the onset date for the monsoon over Kerala.
During a virtual briefing, IMD’s Director General Dr. Mrityunjay Mohapatra stated, “The South West monsoon precipitation across the nation is anticipated to be 106% of the long-term average, with a model error margin of 4%. Hence, above-normal rainfall is highly probable for the country overall.”
The chief meteorologist further elaborated that India’s primary monsoon zone, which encompasses the majority of rain-dependent agricultural regions, is forecasted to receive above-average rainfall this season.
States such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh constitute the country’s principal monsoon zone where agriculture relies predominantly on rainfall.
Conversely, for other regions, he predicted below-normal monsoon activity in northeastern India, average precipitation in the northwest, and above-normal rainfall in central and southern peninsular regions.
The IMD’s director general also noted that the country is likely to experience standard rainfall (92-108% of the long-period average of 166.9 mm) in June.
As numerous regions of the country endure severe heat, particularly states and Union Territories in the south followed by northern areas experiencing extreme heatwaves, this announcement is poised to bring relief to those engaged in agriculture.
The monsoon is vital for India’s agrarian landscape, with 52% of the net cultivated area dependent on it. It is also essential for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation across the country.
Heatwave in These States
According to the meteorological office, the heatwave will persist in Northern India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Uttar Pradesh, until May 29, with a gradual decline thereafter.
Several parts of the country are suffering under the intense heatwave in May, which struck the nation in two distinct phases.
Delhi-NCR, South Haryana, and southwest Uttar Pradesh and Punjab experienced five to seven heatwave days post-May 17, with temperatures soaring to 44-48°C.
In Delhi’s Najafgarh, temperatures reached 48.8°C on Monday. However, Rajasthan and Gujarat were most affected, enduring 9-12 heatwave days with temperatures climbing to 50°C and remaining high for days. Phalodi recorded a temperature of 49.3°C on Monday.
The IMD has retracted any red warnings after May 30 due to a western disturbance, which could introduce some moisture and potentially trigger thunderstorm activity over the plains, thereby reducing temperatures.
“This summer has been exceptionally scorching for Northwest India—not only in terms of heatwave frequency but also higher night temperatures throughout the month. Caution is advised in June as temperatures are likely to remain elevated during both day and night, coupled with rising humidity levels,” stated Dr. Mohapatra.
