In the recent past, while a surge of political allegiance to the BJP swept across Uttar Pradesh, Mainpuri remained steadfast in its support for the Samajwadi Party, electing Mulayam Singh Yadav, the party’s patriarch. As the saffron party now endeavors to claim victory in the SP stronghold, the battleground is delineated between ‘Modi ki guarantee’ and Mulayam’s enduring influence.
Located approximately 220 kilometers from the state capital, Lucknow, Mainpuri stands as a bastion of the SP, steadfastly maintaining its allegiance to the party for nearly thirty years. Among the handful of seats clinched by the SP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, conducted in collaboration with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Mainpuri stood firm.
Following the demise of SP’s founding member, Mulayam Singh Yadav, in 2022, the mantle of representation fell upon his daughter-in-law, Dimple Yadav, who secured victory in a subsequent by-election. Striving diligently to preserve the constituency, Dimple Yadav rests her aspirations on the groundwork laid by the veteran SP leader, vowing to perpetuate “Mulayam Singh’s legacy” by treading in his footsteps.
Adorned in traditional attire, Dimple Yadav actively engages in canvassing across the constituency, while her daughter, Aditi Yadav, undertakes a separate campaign in support of her mother’s candidacy. Expressing her views, Dimple Yadav, spouse of SP president Akhilesh Yadav, conveyed to PTI that the electorate seeks change, disillusioned by the BJP’s coercive political tactics, which have led to widespread discontent and disenchantment.
During the filing of Dimple Yadav’s nomination papers from Mainpuri, a seat she has held since 2022, a display of unity within the Yadav family was evident, with Akhilesh Yadav, alongside his uncles Ramgoapal Yadav and Shivpal Yadav, accompanying her. Local sentiment suggests a clear advantage for Dimple Yadav over her competitors in Mainpuri.
According to Gaurav Yadav, a resident of Gaggarpur in Bewar, “No one but Bhabhi ji (Dimple Yadav) will emerge victorious here.” He asserts that genuine concerns resonate more profoundly than political rhetoric, affirming the electorate’s inclination towards caste-based affiliations and localized influences, which favor the SP.
In response to the BSP’s nomination of Shiv Prasad Yadav from the constituency, Jiledar Katheria, a resident of Thonkalpur Tisauli, dismissed the party’s attempts to undermine the SP’s standing, emphasizing the overwhelming support for the SP across Mainpuri. He asserts that the prominence of Mainpuri and Etawah owes much to Netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav) and his contributions.
For the BJP, which attributed Dimple Yadav’s by-poll triumph to public sympathy following Mulayam Singh Yadav’s demise, securing victory in Mainpuri would constitute a significant triumph, following their success in the former SP bastions of Azamgarh and Rampur in the 2022 by-elections.
Subsequent to the by-poll results, the SP’s representation in the Lok Sabha plummeted to an unprecedented low of three seats. Out of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP secured 62, with its ally Apna Dal clinching two in the 2019 general elections. The Congress managed to secure just one seat, while the SP and BSP formed a coalition.
Jaiveer Singh, Uttar Pradesh Tourism Minister and incumbent MLA from Mainpuri Sadar, represents the BJP in the electoral fray. He expresses optimism that “Modi ki guarantee” and his legislative achievements will secure victory for him. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during a recent election rally, urged the electorate to ensure Singh’s victory, promising to elevate him to a position of prominence within the party, facilitating comprehensive development in the city.
Rahul Chaturvedi, BJP District President, exudes confidence in the party’s prospects, asserting their determination to secure victory and create history in the process. He emphasizes the electorate’s trust in “Modi ki guarantee,” prioritizing development over tokenism, a sentiment echoed by local resident and BJP supporter, Rohit Kumar.
Kumar acknowledges the formidable challenge faced by the SP in the current political climate, expressing faith in Jaiveer Singh’s capacity to usher in development. Mainpuri parliamentary constituency encompasses five assembly segments—Mainpuri, Bhogaon, Kishni, Karhal, and Jaswant Nagar. In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP clinched victories in the Karhal, Kishni, and Jaswant Nagar seats, while the BJP emerged triumphant in Mainpuri and Bhogaon.
Akhilesh Yadav represents the Karhal constituency, while his uncle, Shivpal Singh Yadav, serves as the MLA for Jaswant Nagar. Demographically, Mainpuri boasts a significant Yadav population, approximately 350,000, alongside over 150,000 Thakurs, 120,000 Brahmins, 60,000 Shakyas, 140,000 Jatavs, and upwards of 100,000 Lodhis. Additionally, the constituency comprises approximately 100,000 Muslim and Kurmi voters.
Since 1996, the constituency has remained under the SP’s dominion, commencing with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s inaugural victory, succeeded by Balram Singh Yadav’s consecutive triumphs in 1998 and 1999. Mulayam Singh Yadav reclaimed victory in 2004, 2009, and 2014, with the party patriarch securing another triumph in 2019. Notably, the SP’s vote share surged from 42.77% in the 1996 elections to 64.06% in the 2022 bypoll, marking a significant ascent, notwithstanding a dip to 53.66% in 2019, coinciding with Mulayam Singh’s victory by a margin of 94,000 votes.
SP district president Alok Shakya attributes the fluctuation in vote share to senior party leader Shivpal Yadav’s departure from the SP ranks. In 2019, Shivpal Yadav defected from the SP, contesting against the party. However, with familial unity restored, Shakya anticipates a different dynamic in the upcoming elections. Mainpuri is slated to conduct polls in the third phase of the ongoing general elections on May 7.