Amid the escalating likelihood of a redux between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the global allies of the United States are preparing for a turbulent journey ahead.
Concerns abound that a potential second term for Trump could be seismic, yet seismic tremors are already reverberating. There’s a growing apprehension that the United States may become less reliable, regardless of the election outcome. Given the fractured electorate and Congressional deadlock, the next U.S. president might find themselves entangled in a web of domestic challenges before delving into global flashpoints, ranging from Ukraine to the Middle East.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent assessment was direct: America’s “primary focus is internal.”
The initial Trump administration strained the ties between the U.S. and its allies, particularly in Europe. Trump openly criticized leaders of some allied nations, such as Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s Theresa May, while expressing admiration for autocrats like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. His praise extended to China’s Xi Jinping as “brilliant” and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán as “an exceptional leader.”
In campaign addresses, Trump maintains a skeptical stance on entities like NATO, often lamenting the substantial U.S. investment in the military alliance crucial to Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s incursion.
During a recent rally, he asserted that, as president, he had cautioned NATO allies, signaling an inclination to let Russia act freely against nations not meeting their financial commitments to the alliance. Trump also advocated replacing all foreign aid donations with loans, as he communicated via his social media platform.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg cautioned that such statements from Trump could jeopardize U.S. troops and their allies, stressing that any notion of allies not supporting each other undermines collective security and heightens risks for American and European soldiers.
In contrast, Biden has positioned support for Ukraine as a central priority and a moral imperative. However, his post-election declaration of “America is back” on the global stage hasn’t fully materialized. Congressional Republicans have obstructed additional military aid for Ukraine, and U.S. influence has proven insufficient to quell conflicts in the Middle East.
Thomas Gift, Director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, predicts a consistent trajectory, regardless of the election outcome — a shift towards a multipolar world where the United States no longer holds an indisputable superpower status.
Most allied leaders refrain from direct comments on the U.S. election, emphasizing that it’s the prerogative of Americans to select their leader. They recognize the necessity of collaborating with the eventual winner, undertaking discreet “backroom work” to establish connections with the political teams of the contenders, as outlined by Richard Dalton, a former senior British diplomat.
However, several European NATO allies are apprehensive that, with or without Trump, the U.S. is evolving into a less dependable ally. Some openly discuss the imperative for members to escalate military spending and prepare for an alliance sans the United States.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, acknowledging this shift, actively urges colleagues to contribute more to support Ukraine. While Germany is the second-largest contributor of military aid to Kyiv, Scholz conveys the inability to fill any potential void should the U.S. cease its support.
Trump’s recent remarks regarding NATO have stirred concerns in Poland, sharing a border with Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk underscores the urgency of recognizing the EU’s need to bolster defense capabilities, given the evolving global landscape.
Meanwhile, Russia is forging stronger ties with China, Iran, and North Korea, while attempting to erode Ukraine’s international backing.
Macron contends that American attention is notably directed away from Europe, identifying the U.S.’s top priorities as itself and, secondarily, China. He advocates for a more robust Europe capable of self-protection and independence from external dependencies.
While Trump garners support in Europe, especially from pro-Russia figures like Hungary’s Orbán, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s endorsement of a potential Trump presidency raises eyebrows. Johnson, despite being a staunch supporter of Ukraine, envisions a Trump-led effort to help Ukraine triumph in the conflict, ultimately strengthening the West and global stability.
Bronwen Maddox, Director of the international affairs think tank Chatham House, dismisses arguments minimizing the potential destabilizing impact of a Trump re-election. She emphasizes the tangible damage already inflicted and likely to persist.
Biden’s critique of Trump’s Iran policy hasn’t translated into improved relations with Tehran. The Middle East’s prospects, according to Dalton, would be marginally better under Biden, but resolution of core tensions, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s aspirations, remains improbable.
Palestinian advocates urge Biden to temper U.S. support for Israel amid rising civilian casualties in Gaza. Israeli hard-liners, however, contend that the U.S. is already restraining the offensive against Hamas too much.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister, asserts Biden’s insufficient backing for Israel, contrasting it with a hypothetical Trump administration taking a different, more assertive approach.
Similar to allies, America’s rivals refrain from expressing overt preferences for the election outcome.
Trump fostered a close relationship with Turkey’s Erdogan, labeling them “very good friends” during a 2019 White House meeting. Despite this rapport, U.S.-Turkey relations experienced tensions, leading to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet project and Trump’s threats to disrupt Turkey’s economy.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sees little difference between a Trump and a Biden presidency, asserting that Russia-U.S. relations have been on a downward trajectory since George W. Bush’s administration.
In the case of China, the initial warmth towards Allies on Edge: Growing Worries Surround Possible Trump ResurgenceTrump soured into trade disputes and escalating tensions, a trend continuing under Biden’s tenure. Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, characterizes both candidates as akin to “two ‘bowls of poison'” for China.
Gift, from University College London, contends that the shift towards a more fragmented world is inevitable, independent of the election outcome. According to him, it’s a reality that transcends the influence of either Donald Trump or Joe Biden.