In the sun-drenched ambience of Camp David, Maryland, a remarkable handshake unfolded between the most improbable of statesmen, President Jimmy Carter looking on with approval. This warm encounter marked the sealing of a groundbreaking agreement, a pact etched by Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. This accord has been the bedrock of over four decades of tranquility between Israel and Egypt, offering a stabilizing force in the midst of regional volatility.

This enduring peace has withstood the tumult of two Palestinian uprisings and a series of conflicts between Israel and Hamas. However, the current scenario, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledging to deploy Israeli troops into Rafah, a Gaza city on the Egyptian border, raises the specter of the Egyptian government annulling the agreement. Let’s delve into the historical context of the treaty and contemplate the potential ramifications if it faces nullification.

THE GENESIS OF THE TREATY The year was 1977, and Prime Minister Begin, staunchly opposed to relinquishing any of the territories acquired by Israel a decade earlier in the 1967 Middle East conflict, including Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. This stance defied expectations, given the history of four major wars between Egypt and Israel, the most recent being in 1973. Surprisingly, Egyptian President Sadat, breaking ranks with fellow Arab leaders, chose to engage with the Israelis. The culmination of these efforts resulted in the Camp David Accords in September 1978, eventually leading to a peace treaty the following year.

Under the terms of this historic pact, Israel committed to withdrawing from the Sinai, leaving it demilitarized. The Suez Canal, a crucial trade route, granted passage to Israeli ships. The establishment of full diplomatic relations marked Israel’s first-ever peace agreement with an Arab nation. The orchestrators of the Camp David Accords, displaying courage and foresight, left a lasting legacy for peace and security. Paige Alexander, CEO of the Carter Centre, lamenting the current lack of similar leadership, emphasized the need for such visionary guidance in today’s world.

EGYPT’S CURRENT STANCE Recent reports suggest that Egypt might suspend the peace treaty should Israeli forces venture into Rafah, according to two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat. Prime Minister Netanyahu asserts that Rafah stands as Hamas’ final stronghold after over four months of conflict, justifying the necessity of ground troop deployment. Egypt, however, vehemently opposes any action that could force distressed Palestinians across its border. Rafah serves as the primary entry point for humanitarian aid into the besieged territory, and an Israeli offensive could impede crucial supplies. With Rafah’s population swelling from 280,000 to an estimated 1.4 million, including hundreds of thousands in sprawling tent camps, the situation is dire. Despite Netanyahu’s directive for the military to devise a plan for evacuating Palestinian civilians, their destination remains uncertain, as the proposed open spaces farther north have already suffered significant damage from the ongoing Israeli offensive.

IMPACT OF TREATY NULLIFICATION The treaty’s significance lies in its stringent limitations on troop deployment along the border, enabling Israel to focus its military efforts on other fronts. Apart from the conflict in Gaza, Israel is embroiled in frequent skirmishes with the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, while its security forces are heavily present in the occupied West Bank.

If Egypt decides to annul the agreement, the tranquility along Israel’s southern border would be disrupted, necessitating the reinforcement of forces and posing a substantial challenge to an already thinly stretched Israeli military. Simultaneously, this move would have severe repercussions for Egypt. The country has received billions in US military assistance since the peace agreement, and its annulment could jeopardize this vital funding. Additionally, a massive military buildup would strain Egypt’s already fragile economy. Alexander warns that any step leading Egypt into hostilities would prove catastrophic for the entire region.