In the aftermath of the national elections in Pakistan, where his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI)-backed independents emerged as the predominant force, incarcerated former Prime Minister Imran Khan has designated Omar Ayub Khan, the former Minister of Economic Affairs and grandson of the ex-President Ayub Khan, as the nominee for the prime ministerial position.

Per data disclosed by the Election Commission of Pakistan, PTI-backed independents clinched 92 out of the 266 directly-elected seats in the National Assembly. In contrast, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) secured 75 seats, while the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former President Asif Ali Zardari, attained 54 seats.

Imran Khan’s choice of Omar Ayub Khan as the PTI-backed candidate for prime minister arrives amid Nawaz Sharif nominating his brother, former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, as the PML-N’s contender for the same position. Nawaz Sharif has explicitly stated his disinterest in leading a government formed by a minority coalition.

Reports from Pakistani media suggest that PTI leader and former National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser conveyed Imran Khan’s decision to appoint Omar Ayub Khan as the prime ministerial candidate. This announcement followed a meeting between Qaiser and Imran Khan at Adiala jail, where the latter is presently held.

Contesting as a PTI-backed independent candidate, Omar Ayub Khan triumphed in the National Assembly constituency NA-18 Haripur in the Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, securing 192,948 votes. He surpassed PML-N’s Babar Nawaz Khan, who garnered 112,389 votes.

Who exactly is Omar Ayub Khan?

Born on January 26, 1968, Omar Ayub Khan is the grandson of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, who served as the President of Pakistan from 1958 to 1969. Ayub Khan’s tenure saw Pakistan’s defeat in the 1965 war against India.

Omar Ayub Khan is the son of the late Gohar Ayub Khan, a politician and former army officer associated with the PML-N. In 2002, Omar Ayub Khan secured a seat in the National Assembly representing Haripur as a PML-Q candidate, winning with 81,496 votes. Subsequently, he joined the federal cabinet under Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz as the Minister of State for Finance, serving from 2004 to 2007.

In the 2008 Pakistani general election, he contested for the National Assembly seat from Haripur again as a PML-Q candidate but faced defeat with 50,631 votes, losing to Sardar Muhammad Mushtaq Khan. After affiliating with PML-N in 2012, he ran in the 2013 Pakistani general election for the same constituency, encountering another setback with 116,308 votes and losing to Raja Aamer Zaman.

Omar Ayub Khan made a political resurgence in 2014, getting re-elected to the National Assembly from Haripur in a by-election as a PML-N candidate. During this tenure, he also chaired the Standing Committee on Finance, Revenue, and Economic Affairs. However, his position was contested in 2015 when the constituency election was nullified due to voting irregularities and rigging.

In February 2018, he switched allegiance to the PTI and successfully contested the 2018 Pakistani general election, securing 172,609 votes and defeating Babar Nawaz Khan for the National Assembly seat from Haripur. On September 11, 2018, he assumed the role of Federal Minister for Power in then-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s federal cabinet. Following a cabinet reshuffle in April 2019, he took on the additional responsibility of the Ministry of Petroleum, previously held by Ghulam Sarwar Khan.

In a subsequent cabinet reshuffle in mid-April 2021, Prime Minister Imran Khan relocated Omar Ayub Khan from the Ministry of Energy to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

So, what are the odds of Omar Ayub Khan ascending to the prime ministerial role?

Imran Khan has given the green light to his PTI-backed candidates to forge a coalition government with the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) party, as confirmed by PTI spokesperson Raoof Hassan. The MWM, with whom the PTI-backed independents are poised to form a coalition, secured only one seat in the recent elections.

The MWM had supported the PTI in both the 2013 and 2024 Pakistani general elections, marking it as the first religio-political organization endorsed by Imran Khan and his party. The significance of MWM in the government formation process lies in the fact that the victorious 92 independent candidates are prohibited from rejoining the PTI, given the denial of the cricket bat election symbol by the country’s poll panel. However, they retain the option to join other political parties, and the MWM presents itself as a viable alternative.

Together, the PTI-backed independents and the MWM command 93 seats out of the 266 directly elected seats. To establish a government, a party or coalition needs a clear majority of 134 seats out of the 266 contested in the National Assembly. Independents can align formally with a party or form an alliance while maintaining their distinct identity.

Now, the plot thickens. Beyond the 266 elected seats, there are 70 reserved seats in the National Assembly, including 10 for religious minorities and 60 for women. These seats are filled through proportional representation among parties with over 5 percent of the vote. Even considering PTI-backed independents and the lone MWM candidate, they secure just over 20 reserved seats, totaling a little over 113 seats. This prompts the involvement of a third party, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Despite not winning a single seat, JI can secure reserved seats if it garners more than 5 percent of the vote share.

Simultaneously, in a correlated development, Imran Khan has purportedly agreed to engage in discussions with rival PPP to form a coalition government at the Centre. PTI party sources, as quoted by Geo News, suggest that ties between the two parties will be advanced.

This development follows Zardari expressing a willingness to negotiate with PTI for the reconciliation process in the country. Zardari, during a joint press conference of six parties, emphasized the inclusion of PTI in the reconciliation process. He envisioned collective efforts on economic, defense, and shared agendas, desiring the success of leaders like Nawaz Sharif to contribute to the overall success of Pakistan and its people.

It’s noteworthy that if PPP has a stake in power, Zardari is widely speculated to assume the presidency again after incumbent President Arif Alvi steps down.