In hindsight, the drivers of Hamas’s recent, well-executed attack on Israel become apparent. This article delves into the motives behind this act of aggression and the broader context of the conflict, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding.

The Historical Context

The recent assault by Hamas is part of a recurring pattern of conflict between the organization and Israel. Since 2005, when Israel withdrew its military presence and forcibly removed Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip, the region has witnessed four wars and numerous bouts of violence. Whenever Hamas launches rocket attacks or similar provocations, Israel responds with major bombings, creating a cycle of retaliation. It appears that Hamas regards this as an unfortunate but necessary cost of maintaining its influence.

One of the driving factors for Hamas’s inclination toward violence is the presence of smaller, more extremist groups challenging its authority in Gaza, notably the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. These groups occasionally launch independent rocket attacks on Israel, drawing retribution upon the entire territory.

The Right-Wing Israeli Government

Adding to the tension, the Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is considered one of the most right-wing in Israeli history. The government has openly expressed its desire to annex the West Bank and has facilitated the expansion of Jewish settlements, which are internationally deemed illegal.

This expansion has led to clashes between settlers and young West Bank Palestinians, who have loosely united under the banner of the “Lions’ Den.” This group, composed of independent militants without centralized control, has little regard for the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank but holds limited administrative, security, or moral authority in the region.

The Temple Mount Controversy

The visit by Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to the Temple Mount, a site of great religious significance in Islam, stirred considerable controversy. Israeli tourists also visited the site, further provoking Palestinians. Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount in 2000 is considered the spark that ignited the Second Intifada. Under a pre-existing agreement, Jordan is the custodian of the Al-Aqsa religious complex, and visits by Israeli ministers and non-Muslim tourists are seen as disrespectful.

Hamas claims that such visits desecrate the Al-Aqsa site, aiming to gain support from Muslims worldwide.

The Timing of the Attack

Hamas named its recent action “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood,” highlighting its objection to perceived Israeli desecration of a holy Islamic site. Additionally, the growing trend of Arab states making peace agreements with Israel, exemplified by the 2020 Abraham Accords, is a significant concern for all Palestinians. This reduces pressure on Israel to seek a resolution with the Palestinians, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has prioritized peace with Arab states over Palestinian peace.

Hamas does not recognize Israel but has indicated it would observe a truce if Israel withdrew to its 1967 borders. However, such an agreement appears unlikely, and the prospect diminishes further if Saudi Arabia forges its own deal with Israel.

The attack also coincides with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur or Ramadan War in 1973, where Egypt and Syria attacked Israel together. The significance of a Palestinian entity surprising Israel is not lost on Hamas.

The Future of the Conflict

The future of the conflict remains uncertain. The involvement of Hezbollah in Lebanon may depend on its sponsor, Iran, which has typically kept Hezbollah’s military strength in reserve. Furthermore, the “Lions’ Den” militants in the West Bank could create a third front against Israel, and attacks on Jewish Israelis by Arab Israelis living in Israel could escalate the situation.

US President Joe Biden has pledged support for Israel, indicating that Israel will eventually overcome these challenges. However, the main constraint on Israeli action in Gaza is the presence of kidnapped Israeli citizens held by Hamas, making indiscriminate bombing a risk.

Israel also faces the challenge of maintaining international support, as overly harsh retaliation could turn Western opinion against it. So far, Western governments have shown strong support for Israel and a lack of sympathy toward Hamas.

The Bigger Picture

This conflict underscores the need for Israel to develop a comprehensive policy for managing the Palestinian territories under its control. The existing situation, where hardline militants are confined to Gaza while Israeli forces limit the actions of Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank, has served the Israeli government for years, allowing it to resist external pressure for a two-state or one-state solution.

In conclusion, the motives behind Hamas’s recent attack on Israel are deeply rooted in historical and geopolitical factors. Understanding these motives is essential to unravel the complexities of this ongoing conflict.